

PCCA Journal|1
st
Quarter 2010
12
today.”
6
Green transmission corridors, particularly those in
support of wind energy, are already a significant driver
of transmission construction across the U.S. and at the
same time address reliability and aging infrastructure
concerns. A number of transmission congestion studies
and work by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commis-
sion (FERC) resulted in the start of a process to acceler-
ate transmission grid infrastructure build out. Exhibit
5 identifies 21 areas where major (over 345-kV and
more than 50 miles long) transmission lines have been
proposed, planned, or are under construction. These
projects range in cost from hundreds of millions to
billions of dollars and represent a large chunk of total
U.S. transmission spending between 2010 and 2014.
The wind power market accounted for 42 percent of
new electricity generation in 2008 with roughly 8,500
MW brought online.
7
While the 2009 numbers had not
been released at the time of publishing, the year is
likely to finish with somewhere in the neighborhood
of 7,000 MW being added. Wind energy is the fast-
est growing, most significant, and therefore the most
relevant of renewable energy sources today. Given the
incentives incorporated into the ARRA, FMI expects it
will continue to thrive. Texas remains the clear leader
in wind power generation with over 8,700 MW in-
stalled, although Pennsylvania and Wyoming both saw
more growth during 2009. Visibility has raised compe-
tition dramatically in this segment for designers and
contractors who have operated in it for years.
Looking forward to 2010, many analysts predict a
banner year for wind farm construction as the legisla-
tive environment appears to be moving in favor of
renewable energy. While FMI is in agreement that 2010
through 2012 will likely be some of the strongest years
on record for domestic wind energy construction, we
are also mindful of tight credit markets, utility power
purchase agreements demand, and an investor commu-
nity reluctant to fund riskier renewable energy projects.
Nearly everyone is optimistic on wind power construc-
tion, but a soon-to-be-released report from Ion Con-
sulting of Denver, Colo., is much more pessimistic. In
“Near-Term Outlook for U.S. Wind Market Sector,” Ion
cited four drivers that will significantly constrain wind
power construction:
Ignorance of the role a utility has in determining the
1.
demand for new wind additions
The bubble of merchant wind projects where a util-
2.
ity was signing their very first PPA
Lower demand for power that will likely defer 4,500
3.
MW of new renewables
Financial market constraints that will likely con-
4.
Market Forecast
Continued from page 10
tinue through 2011
While FMI is not nearly as pessi-
mistic, we see significant challenges
beyond 2012 when domestic wind
power growth will likely slow signifi-
cantly as the industry faces severe
interconnection and transmission
infrastructure challenges.
Gas and Liquid
Transmission & Distribution
FMI forecasts positive but unbal-
anced growth for gas pipeline
construction in 2010 forward. New
service construction is essentially
nonexistent, while higher-pressure
distribution and pipeline replace-
ment work are exhibiting significant
growth. Also affecting gas T&D
is the uncertainty around emis-
sion standards, which continue to
discourage the development of new
coal-fired assets, and with nuclear
power still five to seven years off,
gas-fired capacity will be a vital part
of base load generation construction
going forward. Overall, FMI forecasts
3 to 5 percent annual growth for the