PCCA Journal|3
rd
Quarter 2015
27
A
ccording to the 10th an-
nual Cisco Visual
Networking Index (VNI)
Forecast, annual
Internet Protocol (IP)
traffic will triple between 2014 and 2019,
when it will reach a record 2 zettabytes.
Factors expected to drive traffic growth
include global increases in Internet
users, personal devices and machine-
to-machine (M2M) connections, faster
broadband speeds, and the adoption of
advanced video services. Collectively,
these variables are expected to create
a global IP traffic compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent—the
first global CAGR increase in consecutive
VNI forecasts in nearly a decade (e.g.,
last year’s projected CAGR for 2013-2018
was 21 percent).
“It took 32 years—from 1984 to 2016—
to generate the first zettabyte of IP traffic
annually. However, as this year’s Visual
Networking Index forecasts, it will take
only three additional years to reach the
next zettabyte milestone when there will
be more than 2 zettabytes of IP traffic
annually by 2019,” said Doug Webster,
Cisco vice president of service provider
products and solutions marketing.
Key Global IP Traffic and
Service Predictions
Cisco predicts that global IP traffic will
reach 168 exabytes per month by 2019,
up from 59.9 exabytes per month in
2014. In 2019, nearly as much traffic will
traverse global IP networks than all prior
“Internet years” combined (from 1984 to
the end of 2013). Several elements will
shape IP traffic in the coming years:
More Internet Users.
As fixed and
mobile networks grow and expand, more
people will have network and Internet
access. In 2014, there were 2.8 billion In-
ternet users, or 39 percent of the world’s
population of 7.2 billion. By 2019, there
will be about 3.9 billion Internet users,
or 51 percent of the world’s projected
population of 7.6 billion. (Source:
Population Division of the Department of
Economic & Social Affairs of the United
Nations.)
Proliferation of Devices and Con-
nections.
With 24 billion networked
devices/connections expected online by
2019, compared with 14 billion in 2014,
service provider networks must adapt to
an influx of sophisticated devices. These
devices include tablets, smartphones,
and Internet-enabled ultra-high defini-
tion (UHD) TVs, as well as M2M con-
nections and wearables (including new
smart watches, health monitors, etc.).
Globally, there will be 3.2 networked
devices/connections per capita by 2019,
up from 2 per capita in 2014. These
advanced devices and connections will
need to be authenticated to gain access
to fixed and mobile networks, which
require enhanced intelligence, network
management, and security. A compre-
hensive IPv6 strategy will be imperative
for carriers to accommodate the volume
and complexity of next-generation de-
vices and connections. Globally, 41 per-
cent of all fixed and mobile networked
devices/connections will be IPv6-capable
by 2019, up from 22 percent in 2014.
Faster Fixed Broadband
Speeds.
Globally, the average fixed
broadband speed will increase two-fold
from 20.3 Mbps in 2014 to 42.5 Mbps in
2019. Year-over-year, the average global
fixed broadband speed grew 26 percent
from 16 Mbps in 2013 to 20.3 Mbps in
2014. From a regional perspective, West-
ern Europe and Asia Pacific continue
to lead the world in fixed broadband
network speeds. North America and
other regions are also updating their
network resources to accommodate
more bandwidth-intensive content and
applications (e.g., UHD video). By 2019,
33 percent of all global fixed broadband
connections will be faster than 25 Mbps,
up from 29 percent today.
New and Advanced Video Services.
IP video will account for 80 percent of
all IP traffic by 2019, up from 67 percent
in 2014. The evolution of advanced
video services (e.g., UHD and spheri-
cal/360 video) and increasingly video
centric M2M applications are anticipated
to create new bandwidth and scalabil-
ity requirements for service providers.
Residential, business, and mobile con-
sumers continue to have strong demand
for advanced video services across all
network and device types, making qual-
ity, convenience, content/experience,
and price key success factors.
Mobility Momentum.
By 2019, more
than 14 percent of monthly IP traffic will
derive from cellular connections, and 53
percent of monthly IP traffic will come
from Wi-Fi connections globally, making
differentiated and monetizable mobile
strategies more important for all service
providers.
Wi-Fi and mobile connected devices
will generate 67 percent of IP traffic by
2019 (Wi-Fi: 53 percent and cellular: 14
percent) compared with fixed traffic,
which will account for 33 percent of
overall traffic.
In 2014, fixed traffic accounted for 54
percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi account-
ed for 42 percent and cellular 4 percent.
The Internet of Everything (IoE) and
M2M Growth.
The IoE trend is showing
tangible growth as M2M connections
Cisco Visual Networking Index Predicts
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