Background Image
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  27 / 56 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 27 / 56 Next Page
Page Background

PCCA Journal|3

rd

Quarter 2015

27

A

ccording to the 10th an-

nual Cisco Visual

Networking Index (VNI)

Forecast, annual

Internet Protocol (IP)

traffic will triple between 2014 and 2019,

when it will reach a record 2 zettabytes.

Factors expected to drive traffic growth

include global increases in Internet

users, personal devices and machine-

to-machine (M2M) connections, faster

broadband speeds, and the adoption of

advanced video services. Collectively,

these variables are expected to create

a global IP traffic compound annual

growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent—the

first global CAGR increase in consecutive

VNI forecasts in nearly a decade (e.g.,

last year’s projected CAGR for 2013-2018

was 21 percent).

“It took 32 years—from 1984 to 2016—

to generate the first zettabyte of IP traffic

annually. However, as this year’s Visual

Networking Index forecasts, it will take

only three additional years to reach the

next zettabyte milestone when there will

be more than 2 zettabytes of IP traffic

annually by 2019,” said Doug Webster,

Cisco vice president of service provider

products and solutions marketing.

Key Global IP Traffic and

Service Predictions

Cisco predicts that global IP traffic will

reach 168 exabytes per month by 2019,

up from 59.9 exabytes per month in

2014. In 2019, nearly as much traffic will

traverse global IP networks than all prior

“Internet years” combined (from 1984 to

the end of 2013). Several elements will

shape IP traffic in the coming years:

More Internet Users.

As fixed and

mobile networks grow and expand, more

people will have network and Internet

access. In 2014, there were 2.8 billion In-

ternet users, or 39 percent of the world’s

population of 7.2 billion. By 2019, there

will be about 3.9 billion Internet users,

or 51 percent of the world’s projected

population of 7.6 billion. (Source:

Population Division of the Department of

Economic & Social Affairs of the United

Nations.)

Proliferation of Devices and Con-

nections.

With 24 billion networked

devices/connections expected online by

2019, compared with 14 billion in 2014,

service provider networks must adapt to

an influx of sophisticated devices. These

devices include tablets, smartphones,

and Internet-enabled ultra-high defini-

tion (UHD) TVs, as well as M2M con-

nections and wearables (including new

smart watches, health monitors, etc.).

Globally, there will be 3.2 networked

devices/connections per capita by 2019,

up from 2 per capita in 2014. These

advanced devices and connections will

need to be authenticated to gain access

to fixed and mobile networks, which

require enhanced intelligence, network

management, and security. A compre-

hensive IPv6 strategy will be imperative

for carriers to accommodate the volume

and complexity of next-generation de-

vices and connections. Globally, 41 per-

cent of all fixed and mobile networked

devices/connections will be IPv6-capable

by 2019, up from 22 percent in 2014.

Faster Fixed Broadband

Speeds.

Globally, the average fixed

broadband speed will increase two-fold

from 20.3 Mbps in 2014 to 42.5 Mbps in

2019. Year-over-year, the average global

fixed broadband speed grew 26 percent

from 16 Mbps in 2013 to 20.3 Mbps in

2014. From a regional perspective, West-

ern Europe and Asia Pacific continue

to lead the world in fixed broadband

network speeds. North America and

other regions are also updating their

network resources to accommodate

more bandwidth-intensive content and

applications (e.g., UHD video). By 2019,

33 percent of all global fixed broadband

connections will be faster than 25 Mbps,

up from 29 percent today.

New and Advanced Video Services.

IP video will account for 80 percent of

all IP traffic by 2019, up from 67 percent

in 2014. The evolution of advanced

video services (e.g., UHD and spheri-

cal/360 video) and increasingly video

centric M2M applications are anticipated

to create new bandwidth and scalabil-

ity requirements for service providers.

Residential, business, and mobile con-

sumers continue to have strong demand

for advanced video services across all

network and device types, making qual-

ity, convenience, content/experience,

and price key success factors.

Mobility Momentum.

By 2019, more

than 14 percent of monthly IP traffic will

derive from cellular connections, and 53

percent of monthly IP traffic will come

from Wi-Fi connections globally, making

differentiated and monetizable mobile

strategies more important for all service

providers.

Wi-Fi and mobile connected devices

will generate 67 percent of IP traffic by

2019 (Wi-Fi: 53 percent and cellular: 14

percent) compared with fixed traffic,

which will account for 33 percent of

overall traffic.

In 2014, fixed traffic accounted for 54

percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi account-

ed for 42 percent and cellular 4 percent.

The Internet of Everything (IoE) and

M2M Growth.

The IoE trend is showing

tangible growth as M2M connections

Cisco Visual Networking Index Predicts

,3 7UDIÀF WR 7ULSOH )URP WR

Continued on page 28