PCCA Journal|3
rd
Quarter 2015
21
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Analyst Says U.S. 2015 Coal Production at Lowest Level Since 1987
U
.S. coal production in 2015
is expected to be down
7.5 percent from 2014 and
will be the lowest total
since 1987, a coal analyst for the Energy
Information Administration said in July.
Production totals could get pulled down
further as a mild summer and continued
low natural gas prices weaken domestic
coal demand, said Elias Johnson, who
co-authored the Short-Term Energy Out-
look for July.
“If demand doesn’t really rebound
because of a warm summer, we could
see consumption go even lower and that
could lead to production going down,”
Johnson said.
Production is expected to drop in each
of the three coal producing regions. The
Appalachian region will be down 12.1
percent from 2014, the Interior region
will drop by 2.7 percent, and the West
will drop by 6.9 percent, according to
the EIA. Coal exports are expected to
drop by 10.2 percent.
The EIA also projects coal consump-
tion for electricity generation will decline
by 6.6 percent from 2014 and forecasts
that it will increase slightly in 2016, up
1.3 percent from this year.
Factors behind the drop in consump-
tion include low natural gas prices and
less demand due to a mild winter. A
mild summer could bring down those
totals further, Johnson said.
The recent Supreme Court ruling that
remanded the Environmental Protection
Agency’s Mercury and Air Toxic Stan-
dards (MATS) back to lower courts is
not expected to help as the EIA has not
heard of any generator changing course
on retiring coal plants, Johnson said.
One bright spot for the coal industry
in the report shows that as production
and consumption for electricity genera-
tion are expected to drop in 2015, both
are expected to have modest upticks
in 2016. “We’re expecting gas prices to
rise and expect a little more demand for
electricity,” Johnson said. “Even though
we are expecting more retirements for
MATS, were making the assumption that
the remaining generators will be used at
a higher capacity.”
Continued on page 22