Composites Manufacturing - Winter 2021

www.acmanet.org 21 growth expected for 2021. However, there is a more favorable long-term outlook. In a couple of years, one can reasonably expect to see a return to more robust year-on-year growth in the carbon fiber industry once again. As for the industry’s capacity to produce carbon fiber, industry nameplate capacity of carbon fiber producers collectively is approximately 160,000 metric tons – more than enough to satisfy demand in current times. And several producers are planning additional new plants and capacity to satisfy increased future demand. Finally, we must keep in mind that carbon fiber is still an industry in its early development phase. Aircraft are hand- built at a rate of just one or two per day; other applications slightly higher, but still without automation. Automobiles, on the other hand, are mass produced at rates exceeding one per minute. Today, carbon fiber is still used mostly in low-volume applications. It has not yet robustly demonstrated “mass production.” Surely this will come, but when is not certain. In summary, COVID has dealt the carbon fiber industry a blow, but it will be temporary. Despite the events of this extraordinary year, the future is promising for carbon fiber, and developments in the next couple of years will be interesting. The Aerospace Market By Dr. Terrisa Duenas, Chief Technology Officer Nanoventures T he aerospace industry has been affected dramatically by a confluence of events in the past couple of years, most notably the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max and the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Nov. 18, 2020, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson rescinded the grounding order issued on March 13, 2019, of the Boeing 737 Max. But the intervening 18 months took a toll on the industry. In addition, both Boeing and Airbus had to temporarily close their facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, both Boeing and Airbus struggle with significant cuts in production rates and lower orders. (See Figure 4.) As the aerospace industry rebounds, technology solutions informed by innovation will be paramount to its success. Projects harnessing computer power continue to drive composite manufacturing in aerospace. These include integrated computational materials engineering (ICME), which can leverage the flow of data among disparate model frameworks; digital manufacturing, giving rise to digital twins; and the use of analytics to bridge the growing gap between 3D-printed parts and certifiable validation of their integrity. With ICME, aerospace manufacturers see the significant benefits of agility within frameworks that encompass entire organizations, including their customers and stakeholders. A focus on the flow of data to link these frameworks provides both actionable information and performance metrics across silos that can be applied, in theory, at any level in the organization. With their growing complexity, these legacy companies also recognize the critical role of the small business “hard tech” startup often five to 15 years in advance of their impact. This is especially true for material providers, where heavy R&D is often subsidized by government investment in recognition of its pivotal value later. Composites are the ideal material systems to both drive and add value to modeling, analytics or digital twin approaches where the complexity in components, additives and their morphology give rise to innumerable performance differences not only in the choice of constituents, but the manufacturing process as well. This value is especially true when computation can significantly reduce the time between customer requirements and FAA certification. The crossroads of emerging technologies with United States modernization priorities have been in hypersonics, the off-planet economy (space) and cyber security. The latter provides ample challenges for the entire aerospace supply chain, not the least being the need to protect information. Beginning Nov. 30, 2020, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) introduced a self- assessment methodology requiring the DOD supply chain to quantify and report their current cybersecurity compliance. On the innovation side, government agencies continue to promote collaboration between startup technology developers and Tier 1 aerospace companies. One example is the Air Force’s AFWERX program, which facilitates connections across industry, academia and the military. Critical to these emerging technologies are advancements in materials. The need for materials that survive in the harshest of environments between Mach 5 and Mach 20 in space have 2021 State of the Industry Figure 4: Commercial Aircraft Deliveries Source: Modified from the Defense & Security Monitor, Dec. 14, 2020